Wednesday, March 16, 2005

File under: Undecided.

- It turns out that speculators may not have as much to do with high oil prices as was, er, speculated.

- It turns out that oil is volatile. Oppenheimer analyst Fadel Gheit now saying oil may go down to $30, after recently saying he saw it going higher. Mr. Gheit, though a widely quoted analyst, is not one of the people I choose to track. I felt last year that his analysis was too wishy-washy. I feel even more so now that I'm paying closer attention.

- Then there's this article from I'm not entirely sure what it's trying to say, and there seem to be some dangling thoughts, but it seems potentially interesting, so I thought I'd mention it. What I think the guy is trying to say is:

a) Oil companies are reluctant to invest in high capital projects for fear of having the cheap producers (OPEC) then overproduce and destroy their investments.
b) It is unknown whether this is good or bad for these companies. It could be short term good, long term bad.
b) Oil futures suggest the current high price of oil is not a bubble.

[Since there appear to be more things going on in that last article, I wouldn't be shocked to find I completely missed the point he was trying to make. Or even that I drew the wrong conclusions. This guy reminds me of some of my college professors.]