Wednesday, March 09, 2005

A bear, the Pope, and a technical analyst go into the woods..

If a technical analyst is in the woods studying a tree falling chart, would he recognize the tree falling on his own head before or after it clocked him?

Traders are already calling for a double top in the price of oil, which is generally a bearish sign. A double top is when the same ceiling is hit twice and each time the price reverses course. In this case, oil has now twice hit $55.xx and not gone beyond it. (Except for maybe tomorrow or the next day, or next ?)

There's an article here with various charts, the point being made is that the oil stocks look like bubble charts.

Anyway, this may well tell us something short term, but we know the story longer term and that's what makes it interesting.

I'd rather know the story longer term.

[Several large block trades in XOM at the end of the day. One day we'll know who bought and who sold.]