Sunday, June 12, 2005

Karnak The Magnificent says "No and no."

Transcripts from an interview with Matthew Simmons of Simmons and Company International, a leading skeptic on mainstream views of Saudi Arabia's reserves:

Matthew Simmons interview Part I

Matthew Simmons interview Part II

Matthew Simmons interview Part III


SPK: As you are labeled as an investment banker I want to ask you who is going to profit from this and where should investors look to put their money?

MRS: The money that needs to be spent on this problem will create some very healthy companies. It won't be good for all the companies. I think the majors have themselves in a very serious box. They are too big. And they cannot acquire with high oil prices. I don't like the majors. Over the next year, the majors will do well in the stock market, but I think being small is beautiful. If you are small you are still nimble enough to have real growth. The service industry, are the foot soldiers and the refiners are the toll gate of being able to create a stable crude stream into high quality products. Like Valero. Any of the independent refiners, too.

(I ran across the above on the Peak Energy blog.)

An article based on an interview with Adel al-Jubeir, top foreign policy adviser to Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler Crown Prince Abdullah:

Top Saudi Says Kingdom Has Plenty of Oil

"We will be producing oil for a very long time," al-Jubeir said.

Yes, you will, there are no quibbles over that.

But that's not really the question is it?

The real questions are:

Will you be producing as much oil as the world would like you to produce?

Will you be producing at that rate for as long as the world would like you to?