Tuesday, June 21, 2005

Here comes the Cavalry?

Apache has raised their 2006 crude oil and natural gas price expectations. I think I read somewhere that they had $24 for crude oil in 2006, now they're raising it "a couple of dollars".

As oil companies raise their internal projections for prices, in theory more projects become viable for them.

Several articles mentioning T Boone Pickens today:

Pickens says oil sands are no panacea, but he holds large interests in Suncor and Canadian Oil Sands Trust anyway.

Boone Pickens sees crude oil market testing $60, but "Sixty may slow everything down."

Finally, here's a video interview with T Boone Pickens.

Technical guru John Murphy says the next stop is likely $70. There is a lot of talk like this going around. He may be right, as to get firmly across $60 is going to require a kicker of some sort, and that kicker may just kick us right up.

Finally, Cambridge Energy Research out with a report that any peak is likely to be beyond 2020. Their argument basically relies on the idea that between new fields coming on, enhanced recovery techniques being applied, natural gas liquids, oil from various forms of oil sands, and deep deepwater oil, the world will again be oversupplied with oil, and prices will fall sometime in the 2007-8 timeframe. Any peak is likely to be beyond 2020.

I tend to agree with their ideas, and I was actually going to write as much when I got around to it. Their price projections seem to build in a lot going right though, and they acknowledge that with the observation that the risk lies "above ground".

(I found many of these on The Oil Drum, where the CERA article apparently got Prof. Goose a little hot under the collar.)