The dog infidels ate our homework oil.

I was going to run through the excuses we're now hearing for the high price of oil, but Kevin Drum has already admirably done so with "Studying the Oil Market".

So Peak Oil or not, the reality is:

The oil market is tight, with refining particularly so.

Large amounts of new supply are unlikely to come to market soon.

The game is on, and everybody knows it.

The objective isn't to sell the most oil, it's to make the most money.

End result: "oil traders and speculators now have the largest-scale commodity free market the world has ever known".

Look at the charts of whale oil and MOS2.

And look out above.
And below.
And above.
Repeat..

PS. Peak Oil or not, the super spike idea strikes me as the most likely scenario.