I have to go with my gut, and my gut says we've hit the tipping point, and we're about to go through a sea change as a result of this hurricane and the aftermath.
The effects are obviously devastating to New Orleans and the surrounding areas, but the shock seems to be spreading very quickly.
Gas prices are spiraling out of control. There's talk of shortages. That SUV is looking like a frightening liability. People are feeling vulnerable.
Are recessions about jobs and income, or are they about psychology? I think they're about psychology, and I think that may be running off the tracks.
I don't think this one will be a short, sharp one, like 2001, rather a more protracted shift of attitudes, a subtle belt tightening, a sobriety in spending habits.
Just one man's opinion..