A lot of people have been puzzling over why the 10 year bond hasn't really moved very much as the Fed keeps raising rates.
I've been wondering if it's not because we're going to have an old fashioned oil shock within that time frame, which could cause a global recession and thus global stock markets to tank, and make the good old US Treasury bond look like the genius trade of the decade. (Other than possibly oil stocks.)
There's an article here with further analysis of the Goldman Sach's report last week.
Reading that immediately brought to mind my 10 year idea.