Q: WHAT DO WE WANT?!
A: DEMAND DESTRUCTION!!
Q: WHEN DO WE WANT IT??!!
Charles Maxwell, oil analyst with Weeden & Co, appeared on Bloomberg TV earlier this week.
- More output from OPEC will not solve the long term problems with oil.
- Though the inventory data this week showed an unexpected decline, it's a one week event; you should look at 5 - 7 week averages, which show rising inventories and falling prices.
- He believes we will continue to move across $50, up and down through the summer, but by the end of the summer we will probably be down to $45 or "not a big drop".
- Going into winter, he sees prices going back to $50, generally in the $45-$50 range.
- OPEC, he believes, wants a price in terms of WTI of $44-$54.
- The next big move is upwards. We are running at 98% capacity utilization, with the other 2% being "heavy, nasty, high sulfur crude oil".
- Any modest interruption will bring prices up again; the key is we have to increase capacity, which can't be done in a 6 month - 1 year time frame.
- Liquefied natural gas will start to be important in 2008-2009.
- Oil will see rising prices till then, and possibly demand destruction.
- Gasoline prices, if we have a reasonable summer with no outages at refineries, could go down 5-10 cents a gallon, but next spring we'll be back where we are.
- India's and China's demand for oil continues to grow.
- It's harder and harder to find oil.
- His targets for oil prices: $70 by 2008, $100 by 2010-11.