Monday, August 28, 2006

1500 days to peak oil, give or take.

Mr. Skrebowski collects a wide variety of data on large projects to come up with his estimate. It's interesting to contrast his 2010 date, calculated from basically a ground up view, with the more bird's eye calculation of Kenneth Deffeyes which suggests 2006. Four years is a small difference, not enough to quibble over.

Adelaide Now: Oil crisis by 2010.


Visiting Adelaide, Chris Skrebowski, a trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre and editor of the Energy Institute's Petroleum Review in Britain, said "peak oil" was real and imminent.

"Peak oil is when flows can't meet the required demand," he said. "This will cause an economic tsunami." Mr Skrebowski, addressing a Committee for Economic Development of Australia gathering, said that of the world's 18 largest oil fields, 12 were in production decline.

Few large discoveries were being made, with the prediction of even less new oil in coming years.

"Oil supply will peak in 2010-11 at around 92 to 94 million barrels a day," he said. "We have just 1500 days to peak. Collectively, we are still in denial."