Thursday, May 04, 2006

Jim Cramer starring in "Raging Energy Bull".

Two thumbs way up on Suncor.

Ethanol stocks.

More ethanol.

The late stage drillers.

5/3/06 - "Tonight's show is all about oil."

Though they don't mention it in the transcript, I am pretty sure I heard Jim Cramer say recently on his show that he thought oil would not trade below $70. I don't agree with that. We're having a sort of quasi-Murphy's Law moment, where everything that could go wrong looks like it will go wrong, and that's levitating oil, but I wouldn't want to bet anybody that we might not dip back down in the 60's this year. I can't tell you whether these problems get better or worse, if we get a sense of that you know which way you want to play it.

Also, I am skeptical of the ethanol stocks Cramer recommends. I can't argue with success - they have mostly skyrocketed - but the underlying fundamentals of ethanol aren't very good.

Ethanol from corn, which how it's produced in the US, is not efficient, currently requires subsidies (and likely will for a while), and generates a product that contains less energy than the equivalent gallon of gasoline. Unless something changes there, the story leaves me skeptical, and has a bit of a PT Barnum feel.