Monday, May 22, 2006


With the caveat that I still have some things to learn about technical analysis, it looks to me like today or tomorrow might see a bottom for crude oil prices. If that finds it's footing, I'm thinking the equities also stabilize.

I was thinking of trying to trade it via the USO oil ETF, but right now I'm on vacation and it's tough to make good trades when your mind is on other things.

If they were to find a floor here or close, that would support the idea that we had a medium term top in energy ('Q: The difference between a correction and a crash.'), but if the declines continue in size.. then obviously something more serious is developing. In specific, I'm wondering if perhaps high prices are having effects we don't recognize clearly yet.

I had suggested $3 a gallon was going to be trouble [('Three is the magic number.') and "I think $3+ gasoline on a sustained basis (4+ months) is going to alter the universe." ('Buy early, buy often, repeat.')], but it seemed this year that $3 a gallon was not so bad after all. Maybe my first instinct was right?