Sunday, January 08, 2006

There's Something About Henry.

Of the various oil prognosticators I follow, Henry Groppe of oil analysis firm Groppe, Long & Littell is one of the more even keeled in his predictions. As an example, I can't remember hearing a call for $250 oil from him, any mention of an 'oil crash' scenario, or even the kind of swashbuckling pinpoint oil price predictions that Boone Pickens has, at various points, swooped in and made (and mostly nailed). Which isn't to say Groppe has not had some impressive calls of his own, he just has a different style.

So what is Groppe's prediction for this year? Oil prices may trade in a range of $45 to $75, which seems entirely reasonable to me, if not as sexy as Boone Picken's daring calls, or as eye catching as Matthew Simmons' recent calls.

For more insight on Groppe, I have a prior post here and a more recent one here. There's also this recent interview from an ASPO peak oil conference. All well worth reading for what I think is an informed and balanced view on peak oil.

There's an interesting kicker: As even keeled as Groppe's views are, he admits to having 90% of his investments in energy and 65% in the Canadian energy group.