Thursday, January 26, 2006

Kurt Wulff on Bloomberg TV 01-25-2006.

Kurt Wulff, a former oil analyst with DLJ, currently has his own firm, which publishes research at

Points covered during the discussion yesterday on Bloomberg TV:

ConocoPhillips' (COP) earnings were highlighted. Kurt believes they were exceptional, higher than investors are giving the company credit for, and believes that COP is a cheap stock. Currently, COP is priced as if oil were trading at roughly $38, while the 6 year forward oil futures, which Kurt believes are a reliable indicator, are at $66.

Kurt discussed his outlook for the energy market in 2006. He doesn't know exactly how the year plays out, but believes that investors are behind the curve. His view is that we are in the middle of a decade long uptrend in energy prices, and that oil will be around $150 in 2010, based on the idea that our energy situation is now worse than it was in the 1970's, energy continues to be relatively cheap, and in the 1970's the price of oil increased by 10 times.

Kurt has a particular fondness for natural gas, as it deserves a premium as a cleaner fuel. At the 5 to 1 conversion rate he uses, he sees the possibility of natural gas at $30 in 2010.

What could end the price gains for energy?

As in 1980, a worldwide recession of some sort.

Kurt, however, is optimistic on worldwide growth, and believes that it continues to be strong.