Make of this what you will. You probably want to read it all. There are rumors around that the Saudis are experiencing some issues with Ghawar production, and I assume that has something to do with Simmons' more urgent tone here. But you never know where the rumors come from and who benefits.
Petroleum News: Saudi Oil Shock Ahead.
Simmons also suggests that Saudi production is very near its peak. But the feedback he has received from technical people who have read the book, leads him now to believe that Saudi Arabia has “actually exceeded sustainable peak production already.”
“And I think at the current rates they are producing these old fields, each of the fields risks entering into a rapid production collapse,” he said.
Saudi oil shock is imminent
Meanwhile, as the world’s thirst for oil grows, Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries will be unable to keep pace. Some analysts say Saudi Arabia is capable of producing 20 million to 25 million bpd, but Simmons says that level of production is “impossible.”
“And I also believe that — Ghawar, for instance, which is really the whole nine yards, because that is 60 percent of their production — that North Ghawar, which is the top 20 percent of the field, has a productivity index that is about 25 times the productivity index of the rest of Ghawar, and that’s the area that is almost depleted now,” Simmons observed. “And when that drops, you could basically see Ghawar go from 5 million down to 2 million bpd in a very short period of time.”
ANWR may hold ‘queen’
America needs more oil sources and Alaska is a good place to look, Simmons said. As for ANWR, he said it’s ludicrous for people, whether geologists or environmentalists, to make definitive statements about the quantity of oil reserves in the refuge.
Found on The Oil Drum.