Friday, September 02, 2005

All this, and a great beer too.

Tim Guinness of Guinness Atkinson Global Energy Fund on Bloomberg TV this morning.

His comments:

- On any basis, $60 oil, $70 oil, or $80 oil, he believes oil stocks are still cheap as oil stocks are priced as if the long run price of oil will be $42.

- If oil prices were to stay in the range of $50 - $60, he sees 30-50% upside in oil stocks over the next 18 to 24 months.

- He believes there is a possibility oil prices could go to $80 - $85 and stay there for a long time, in which case he believes oil stocks have an upside of 200% if investors are convinced this is the long run price. This will take longer.

- He likes the integrated oils now, particularly Chevron, which he believes is the best value, with a 9x pe. Exxon, for comparison, is at 12x.

- He also like oil sands stocks, particularly Canadian Natural Resources and Opti Canada. If prices stay at these levels, he believes these stocks will be 'cash waterfalls' for 50-70 years.

[Note: CNQ and Opti Canada are getting highlighted all over the place. Opti has been mentioned by Peter Thiel, Boone Pickens, Donald Coxe and now Tim Guinness.]