Friday, July 08, 2005

Super Spike II: Murti's Revenge.

The China Post: Oil analysts, wrong all year, raise price predictions, say risk on upside.


Three months ago analysts predicted crude oil would average US$49.50 a barrel in New York this year. Today it reached a record US$62.10.
Now the analysts in a Bloomberg survey are back with another prediction, their highest ever: US$53 a barrel in New York this quarter and an average of US$52 for the entire year.

"We've been increasing our price forecasts just about every month," said Dave Costello, an economist with the U.S. Energy Department in Washington who supervises the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. "It's an unfamiliar market. The market has been immune to the kind of adjustments that have occurred in the past."

"There will be nothing to set a price ceiling until we start to see demand restraint," said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. "The risk is primarily to the upside."


While some hedge fund managers have been bullish on oil prices, including Boone Pickens, whose Dallas-based energy commodity hedge fund returned 200 percent after fees in the first half of this year, analysts have stuck to lower forecasts.