I think Tom Petrie might be right - a natural floor might be around $80 to $90 for oil. But I think we don't get there because of the winter (which I suspect will be cold) and because the market is still going to leave a bit of a premium in the mix for the vagaries of the world.
Note the interesting headline flashed, but not discussed:
"Practical peak oil becoming broadly recognized as looming issue"
CNBC: Crude Heading Down to $80 a Barrel: Merrill Executive.
"I think it's pretty clear demand elasticities have been triggered in a way that will take prices lower," Petrie said. "I do think $80 to $90 is probably where the floor is."