Monday, October 06, 2008

The Panic of 2008 bottoms on Oct 14-15?

I see that Barry Ritholtz has come up with the moniker of "The Great Financial Crisis of 2008", but I personally like "The Panic of 2008" a bit better.

While there are certainly legitimate roots for some of the selling, it is now extending well beyond that into a pure financial panic that is spreading into many corners of the market and around the globe.

I highlight here a recent video from Charles Nenner, who makes market predictions based on history and studying various cycles. Why highlight Charles Nenner? Well, he has a pretty good track record of making market calls, including a call that 2008 was going to be a bad year and one that it would be very difficult to make money in.

Mr. Nenner is now suggesting that we may hit a cycle low around October 14 or 15th, but it's also very important that we hold the lows we made recently. Unfortunately, October 14/15 (i.e. next week) seems a very long way off right now, and it doesn't appear that we will hold the market lows. His work also suggests that oil will go back to new highs sometime in mid-2009. And if next week seems a long way off...

Charles see Fox News video at the top for his latest views.