Friday, January 04, 2008

Death to the housing oil bubblers!

Tech, housing, oil.. all great bull markets come to an end at some point.

And this was my year to sell, I started to think. Maybe sell 'em all. That's right, sell everything.


Auf wiedersehen.

Hasta la vista, baby.

I came in pretty nervous, after all. A bull market that dates (with brief respites) back to 1998, which major mojo starting in 2003. 2006 was a little so-so, but 2007 was another barn stormer. And everybodys now talking about oil.

Money Magazine [the most mediocre of the finance magazines by a long shot], for crying out loud, a huge skeptic of oil in 2004 (and a housing bubbler till the bitter end), even getting bullish.

And the kicker: CNBC turning to all oil, all the time lately.

And now Doug Kass.. - DOUG *&^%$#@ KASS - [do you have ANY idea how skeptical this guy is?!], called for $135 oil in his 2008 Surprises (See "20 Surprises for 2008.", it's number 15.

Number 15..? After a huge bull run we can't even make the *&^%$#@ top 5?!)

But then, I ran across this video:

CNBC: Sector Stars for 2008.

And I listened to the survey on how many money managers believe energy will repeat as the best sector this year.

Go ahead, what percentage would you guess?


A third?

A quarter?

One or two?

How about - none. Yep - no money managers believe in energy this year.

Energy is back, baby!

Ok, I'm kidding. Even I don't think energy will be the best sector of 2008. But zero - that has got to get your contrarian hackles up a bit.

I'm a little skeptical on financials being the best performing sector of 2008, but I've had GS on my potential buy list for a while, and maybe this is my year to buy it. Not sure I'm buying until somebody big blows up there though.

What's looking healthy right now? Bought a little TEVA (generic drugs) the other day .