Wednesday, February 28, 2007

So many experts, so little time.

A round up of the more interesting insights today.

CNBC Video: Stephen Schork on Energy.

Summary: Sees oil trading in a range of $55 to $65. If we go above $65, he feels we will likely quickly move to $70, and he believes $65+ oil is serious trouble for the economy; he believes the slowdown in GDP growth we saw at the end of last year was a lagged effect of the highs (~$78) we saw in oil prices last summer.

CNBC Video: Hugh Moore on the slowdown.

Summary: Continues to believe the US enters a recession in late 07 or early 08, also believes we are about halfway through the aftermath of the housing bubble.

Bloomberg TV: Jim Rogers on China's market.

Summary: China's fall is not unexpected, as China's investors were in a mania/bubble. He's not selling in China, but he's not buying either, it's run up too much. The US is probably in a recession, or will be soon, and stock markets will decline. Housing and autos in the US are already in recession. He believes this is the way stock markets begin a decline, with marginal markets, like China and emerging markets going first.

Bloomberg TV: Marc Faber on the overvaluation of all markets.

Summary: All markets are extremely extended, overbought, not particularly attractive in terms of valuations, and vulnerable to some type of disappointment. He points out that this is not a dramatic decline in historical terms, for example in 1987 the Dow Jones fell 21% in one day, other markets have fallen 30% in one week. We haven't had any corrections in the US in a long time, so everybody's leaning in the same direction. We're seeing liquidity being withdrawn in the US sub-prime market, in the Indian stock market, and this could continue like a financial bushfire. Suggests caution/raising cash, since we can't tell the difference between a crash, a bear market, or a correction yet; then check back in 3 months time.

CNBC Video: Saut & Sowerby debate the future.

Bloomberg TV: Robert Shiller on housing.

Bloomberg TV: Boone Pickens on oil.

Summary: Likes deepwater drillers, sees a shortage of deepwater equipment, believes (but sounds less confident than before) that we see $70 oil this year, it's also possible we go higher given the right (or wrong..) events, believes there will be more consolidation in the energy sector; his firm, BP Capital, has positions in Suncor, Valero, EOG; his major worry is a worldwide recession, which his analysts are keeping a very close eye out for.