Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Peter Thiel says be careful out there.

Peter Thiel runs hedge fund Clarium Capital Management and since I started this blog in Feb. 2005 his assets under management have risen from a coupla hundred million dollars to roughly $2 billion. And it ain't just dumb luck folks, as Peter strikes me as seriously sharp in his interviews, and has an impressive investment record to boot. One day I fully expect to hear Peter's name listed alongside some of the real luminaries in the history of hedge funds, names like Rogers, Soros, Steinhardt, Cohen, Simon, et al.

In this interview from MarketWatch, he explains his current views of the markets after the US elections. He sees the potential Democratic sweep of the House as a vote of no confidence on the US economy by the electorate, is worried about equities in general and also very worried about the US housing market for 2007. He continues to be bullish on energy equities, and believes that as a result of Fed moves (or the lack thereof), the US dollar may continue to strengthen.

Generally, these are the same viewpoints he has been expressing for some time, and while he was early on his calls on housing, the more we hear from homebuilders and realtors (Toll Brothers and Beazer announced new orders down more than 50% yesterday, Hovnanian today announced a loss due to land charges.) the more it looks like we may still have a turbulent adjustment period ahead of us in housing.

MarketWatch Video: Peter Thiel.

[note: although MarketWatch lists the video as available, the link no longer appears to link to the proper video.]