Wednesday, September 20, 2006

What's missing from these charts?

Chart of the Day: Oil, Inflation Adjusted.

The Big Picture: The Car Dealers Doldrums Indicator.

Econbrowser: Watching housing slide.

Grey shaded areas on all of the above charts are recessions.

Oil prices, car dealer sales, building permits, housing starts, and the yield spread - suggesting the possibility of recession.

Unemployment, corporate profits, the market averages - generally not suggesting recession.

Retail sales - ?

Could go either way, just as Liz Ann Sonders said. (Her case was built on oil, housing, and the yield curve, btw.)