Monday, March 27, 2006

Things that make you go "Yippie!"

If you don't already have a subscription to Barron's, invest $4 and buy this week's Barrons to read the full interview with Art Smith, the CEO and Chairman of John S. Herold Inc., a research firm that follows the oil industry.

Barrons: Energy, An Aging Bull.

A quick summary:

Energy stocks have run up over the past 3 years, but on various valuation measures continue to look like solid investments, particularly the oil majors. $60 a barrel oil and $7 natural gas is sort of an equilibrium level that should balance supply and demand for the next few years, but Mr. Smith suspects that it is likely there will be a further large upswing in prices, and that it could be due to peak oil. He makes note of the difference in oil futures and the price implied in energy stocks, and he believes the futures prices are likely more correct, suggesting the stocks still have value in them. On the question of what to avoid, he notes that oil service is red hot and that caution should be used in terms of potentially overpaying for what's already in the stocks.