Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI appearing on Bloomberg TV this morning saying that their indicators suggest that recession is no longer a serious concern in the US.
I'm basically leaning the other way, but I always listen to the views of those with good track records and sound statistics, and ECRI certainly qualifies.
Additionally, he sees signs of a bottom in the housing market (though he wants to see a few months more of data), and believes, based on that bottoming and their recession call, that the Fed will not lower interest rates soon.
Earlier observations from ECRI here.
Bloomberg TV: Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI.
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Friday, January 05, 2007
Saturday, September 23, 2006
Pickens: It's the fundamentals.
I dunno, maybe he's a Star Wars fan too.
Dallas Business Journal: Pickens: 'Fundamentals' driving oil price.
Quotes:
Dallas oilman T. Boone Pickens says "fundamentals" are the reason the spot-market price of oil has fallen recently to $61 per barrel from nearly $79.
....
"What's happened is you have enough oil now to satisfy everyone's needs," he said. "The demand is dropping off; the economy is slowing down. You don't need as much oil as you needed 30 days ago or 60 days ago, so the price came down. And that's it in a nutshell."
-------
All kidding aside, the 50/50 case for recession is tilting here heavily. In the recession of 2001, oil prices dropped from roughly $40 (inflation adjusted) to around $23, or 42%. In 1990, they dropped from roughly $56 to around $33, or 41%.
So, let's see... $78 - (78 * .41) = $46.
OPEC wanted a floor of $60, they're going to have to pull oil off the market to get that one to stick. That will be interesting to watch.
Dallas Business Journal: Pickens: 'Fundamentals' driving oil price.
Quotes:
Dallas oilman T. Boone Pickens says "fundamentals" are the reason the spot-market price of oil has fallen recently to $61 per barrel from nearly $79.
....
"What's happened is you have enough oil now to satisfy everyone's needs," he said. "The demand is dropping off; the economy is slowing down. You don't need as much oil as you needed 30 days ago or 60 days ago, so the price came down. And that's it in a nutshell."
-------
All kidding aside, the 50/50 case for recession is tilting here heavily. In the recession of 2001, oil prices dropped from roughly $40 (inflation adjusted) to around $23, or 42%. In 1990, they dropped from roughly $56 to around $33, or 41%.
So, let's see... $78 - (78 * .41) = $46.
OPEC wanted a floor of $60, they're going to have to pull oil off the market to get that one to stick. That will be interesting to watch.
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